El mapa electoral que a partir de hoy los candidatos a la alcaldía buscarán repintar

Por José Victoriano Martínez Guzmán

Hoy que inician las campañas por la presidencia municipal, un vistazo al mapa electoral que se configuró con los resultados de la elección de hace tres años resulta un buen ejercicio para conocer cómo quedó ese panorama que hoy cuatro candidatos aspiran a modificar y uno, que en el primer ejercicio de una posible reelección, intenta mantenerlo como está o incrementar su ventaja.

Ricardo Gallardo Juárez resultó electo presidente municipal en 2015 con 131 mil 500, que representaron el 47.85 por ciento de la votación, contra 81 mil 668 del abanderado panista Xavier Azuara Zúñiga y 35 mil 487 de Manuel Lozano Nieto, del PRI, quienes fueron los más cercanos competidores.

El resto de los candidatos acumuló 24 mil 884 votos, según el concentrado de resultados casilla por casilla, publicado por el Consejo Estatal Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana.

De las 266 secciones identificadas en las tablas de resultados, cruzadas con la cartografía actual del Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE), se obtiene que 185 las ganó Gallardo Juárez, 68 el panista Azuara Zúñiga y el priísta Lozano Nieto sólo logró victorias en 12. Hubo un empate a 134 votos en la sección 1088, del quinto distrito entre Azuara y Gallardo.

Esos resultados se traducen en que Xavier Nava Palacios necesita cuanto menos lograr 49 mil 832 votos más que su candidato antecesor, en tanto que la priísta Cecilia González Gordoa requiere de 96 mil 13 votos más que los que alcanzó Lozano Nieto hace tres años para remontar el revés de la elección anterior. Tales requerimientos presuponen que Gallardo Juárez lograría la misma votación que hace tres años.

Por distrito, ese panorama queda de la siguiente manera:

Para Nava Palacios, en el quinto distrito necesita más de 16 mil 953 para alcanzar a su contrincante; en el sexto distrito requiere 20 mil 843 votos adicionales, y en el octavo distrito 21 mil 258 votos más. En el caso del séptimo distrito, requiere mantener la ventaja que Azuara Zúñiga logró sobre Gallardo Juárez, que fue de 9 mil 222 votos.

Para González Gordoa, en el quinto distrito necesita más de 23 mil 712 votos para alcanzar a su contrincante reeleccionista; en el sexto distrito requiere 29 mil 413 votos adicionales, en el séptimo distrito 13 mil 557 y en el octavo distrito 29 mil 331 votos más.

La siguiente gráfica animada muestra con los colores distintivos de los tres principales aspirantes a la alcaldía hace tres años, la forma en que se configuró el mapa electoral de cada uno de los cuatro distritos que incluye el territorio del municipio de San Luis Potosí, con una amplio predominio amarillo.

Se trata de un ejercicio mediante el que se pone a disposición de los usuarios de Proyecto Tábano la posibilidad de analizar las ventajas y/o desventajas de cada candidato por sección electoral, así como un instrumento estadístico que permitirá comparar el resultado entre una elección y otra.

En la gráfica se puede acceder al resultado global de la elección 2015 y el de cada distrito al dar clic sobre el título de cada imagen, en tanto que al dar clic sobre el número de cada una de las secciones se visualiza una gráfica de pastel con el resultado, así como el mapa (o mapas) de la cartografía del INE que identifican la ubicación de la sección electoral.

Para repintar el mapa con una nueva configuración, los grados de dificultad para los candidatos opositores a Gallardo Juárez, quien busca la reelección, son elevados según la sección de la que se trata.

De entrada, hay 139 secciones en las que sus contrincantes tienen que remontar un resultado en el que el alcalde con licencia obtuvo más del 50 por ciento de los votos, con una votación promedio de 59.54 por ciento, y un porcentaje máximo de 75.91 por ciento.

En contraparte, los panistas lograron ganar con ese mismo nivel de porcentaje en sólo 41 secciones, con una votación promedio de 59.62 por ciento y una votación máxima de 89.06 por ciento. En el caso del entonces abanderado priísta, sólo en seis casos logró ganar con más del 50 por ciento de los votos de las secciones en que venció.

Sólo en el caso de Gallardo Juárez, cuando obtuvo una votación entre el cuarenta y el cincuenta por ciento en los 41 casos ganó la sección. En el caso de Azuara Zúñiga, aunque en 21 casos logró votaciones entre esos porcentajes, le dieron el triunfo en 19. Para el caso del priísta Lozano Nieto, de cuatro secciones en las que alcanzó esos porcentajes de votación, sólo ganó en dos.

En cuanto a votaciones entre 30 y 40 por ciento, Gallardo Juárez los alcanzó en 20 casos, pero sólo lo hicieron ganar en 5 ocasiones; Azuara Zúñiga logró esos porcentajes en 40 casos, pero sólo lo hicieron ganar en 8 casos, en tanto que Lozano Nieto los alcanzó en seis secciones pero sólo lo hicieron ganar en cuatro.

En la siguiente tabla, escriba el número de su sección en el recuadro de búsqueda (BUSCAR) para que conozca los resultados de las casillas que se hayan instalado en la elección de presidente municipal de 2015.

Dto Local SeccionTipoPAN / XAVIER ZAZUARA% PANPRI-PVEM / MANUEL LOZANO%PRI-PVEMPRD-PT / RICARDO GALLARDO% PRD-PTRESTO% RESTO       
5773B016119.613310.6120164.63165.14
5773C018829.53279.0616555.37186.04
5773C027022.083511.0419059.94226.94
5773C036521.45247.9218962.38258.25
5773C046421.19258.2819363.91206.62
5773C054816.164013.4719063.97196.4
5773C067121.523610.9121163.94123.64
5773C077022.443310.5818960.58206.41
5773C088826.67185.4520361.52216.36
5773C096820.864012.2719961.04195.83
5773C107623.46175.2521365.74185.56
5774B015118.213111.0718465.71145
5774C014821.052611.414563.693.95
5774C024014.712910.6618969.49145.15
5774C035521.322610.0816062.02176.59
5774C043513.163312.4118067.67186.77
5774C053514.113413.7116666.94135.24
5774C065420.933413.1815560.08155.81
5774C074518.99198.0215464.98198.02
5774C083615208.3316568.75197.92
5774C094918.563312.516763.26155.68
5774C104418.972912.515265.5273.02
5774C115520.073713.516861.31145.11
5775B013313.983615.2516067.872.97
5775C013513.163212.0318669.92134.89
5775C024114.963010.9519370.44103.65
5775C033714.982710.9317671.2672.83
5775C043716.33113.6615467.8452.2
5775C052810.223010.9521076.6462.19
5775C064216.472610.217568.63124.71
5775C07249.83012.2418073.47114.49
5775C084516.133412.1918767.03134.66
5775C094417.125521.414154.86176.61
5775C102910.943713.9619272.4572.64
5775C112610.23915.2918070.59103.92
5775C123212.852710.8418273.0983.21
5775C133312.64216.0317466.41134.96
5776B014919.14187.0317568.36145.47
5776C016122.51155.5418969.7462.21
5776C023514.773213.515766.24135.49
5776C035120.73135.2816968.7135.28
5776C043814.02228.1220174.17103.69
5776C054216.6197.5118673.5262.37
5777B014314.73258.5620570.21196.51
5777C015520.073312.0416459.85228.03
5778B016422.073512.0717761.03144.83
5778C016921.044413.4119960.67164.88
5778C026221.753712.9817461.05124.21
5778C034414.523611.8820367206.6
5779B016219.23912.0720964.71134.02
5779C016222.143010.7117763.21113.93
5779C024815.09319.7522470.44154.72
5779C037121.783310.1221064.42123.68
5779C044915.364413.7920965.52175.33
5779C056418.6349.8822364.83236.69
5780B015420.933011.6315560.08197.36
5780C013716.02219.0915968.83146.06
5780C023916.253514.5815665104.17
5780C034619.252912.1315062.76145.86
5781B015620.363412.3616861.09176.18
5781C014818.46238.851827072.69
5781C024620.812611.7613962.9104.52
5781C034418.412711.315866.11104.18
5781C044717.473412.6417866.17103.72
5781C055120.243212.715159.92187.14
5782B015518.71227.4819967.69186.12
5782C015518.15309.920367154.95
5782C024515.1237.7221672.48144.7
5783B014415.773612.918465.95155.38
5783C014314.29227.3122073.09165.32
5783C025117.41258.5320268.94155.12
5783C035017.24248.2819366.55237.93
5784B013313.984117.3715163.98114.66
5784C013113.722812.3914865.49198.41
5784C023918.222411.2113864.49136.07
5785B014017.622912.7814262.56167.05
5785C013513.83249.4917067.19249.49
5785C024720.8198.4114765.04135.75
5786B0112133.525013.8515342.383710.25
5786C019728.535415.8814442.354513.24
5786C0210130.424312.9515045.183811.45
5786C0311632.314211.715743.734412.26
5787B017124.233010.2416857.34248.19
5787C016823.783612.5916557.69175.94
5787C029130.74268.7816656.08134.39
5787C037824.683410.7618157.28237.28
5787C047826.17237.7217358.05248.05
5787C057323.43711.8618358.65196.09
5787C068229.08238.1616056.74176.03
5787C0710733.753410.7316150.79154.73
5787C088026.4289.2417156.44247.92
5787C098025.483812.118157.64154.78
5787C109030.613010.216154.76134.42
5787C118126.473110.1317657.52185.88
5788B016425.74317.2711847.39249.64
5788C016330.582210.6810751.94146.8
5789B018926.334112.1318554.73236.8
5789C017924.843611.3217555.03288.81
5790B017121.713611.0120763.3133.98
5790C016420.133511.0119962.58206.29
5790C025817.58329.722467.88164.85
5791B013412.88145.320577.65114.17
5791C014818.97187.1118271.9451.98
5791C024516.79228.2117665.67259.33
5791C034315.41176.0920473.12155.38
5792B016018.07236.9322868.67216.33
5792C015114.17215.8327375.83154.17
5792C026418.5267.5124370.23133.76
5792C035314.8308.3823766.23810.61
5793B016622.223612.1217558.92206.73
5793C016420.13278.4919160.063611.32
5794B015524.552611.6113560.2783.57
5794C016325.513112.5514960.3241.62
5794C026024.792610.7414459.5124.96
5794C036729.262410.4813157.2173.06
5795B015522.543614.7514358.61104.1
5795C015625.69219.6312657.8156.88
5795C024719.264217.2114459.02114.51
5795C035322.183012.5513656.9208.37
5796B017123.05309.7418660.39216.82
5796C017925.73278.7917958.31227.17
5796C028530.143110.9914852.48186.38
5796C036621.223812.2218559.49227.07
5797B016122.853111.6116260.67134.87
5797C016421.923511.9917660.27175.82
5797C026725.674416.8614354.7972.68
5798B018229.64516.2512244.042810.11
5798C018330.184315.6412445.09259.09
5799B014323.53820.779049.18126.56
5799C014423.285126.987439.152010.58
5800B0110229.745516.0316146.94257.29
5800C018325.385316.2118055.05113.36
5801B0110631.745315.8715044.91257.49
5801C0111433.534613.5316749.12133.82
5802B0110034.974114.3411841.26279.44
5802C0111134.055115.6413842.33267.98
5803B0113337.685716.1512836.26359.92
5803C0113637.576016.5714339.5236.35
5803C0211034.065416.7213541.8247.43
5803C0312337.393911.8514142.86267.9
5804B0111029.974813.0817948.77308.17
5805B0110934.284213.2115047.17175.35
5805C017023.895017.0615552.9186.14
5805C029428.314714.1616850.6236.93
5805C038327.125016.3414848.37258.17
5805C049729.224413.2516449.4278.13
5805C057626.34415.2214951.56206.92
5805C069429.654413.8815548.9247.57
5805C076824.29421515455165.71
5805C0811234.253811.6216149.24164.89
5805C099331.213411.4114749.33248.05
5806B0188325118.5511040269.45
5806C018835.344718.889437.75208.03
5807B0111339.934616.2510737.81176.01
5807C019136.114015.878734.523413.49
5808B014915.223611.1821767.39206.21
5808C015718.81309.919564.36216.93
5808C025618.063410.9720465.81165.16
5811B0113533.016716.3817943.77286.85
5812B0116742.827619.4910727.444010.26
5812C0118948.345213.312030.69307.67
5813B0111334.884413.5812638.894112.65
5813C0111637.543912.6212440.13309.71
5814B016025.13615.0612150.63229.21
5814C016223.483714.0215056.82155.68
5815B016227.434218.5810446.02187.96
5815C014920.853615.3212452.772611.06
5816B017224.664515.4114750.34289.59
5816C016123.744115.9513753.31187
5816C028027.49258.5916155.33258.59
5817B0113643.874815.488728.063912.58
5817C0112544.484415.667727.43512.46
5818B0115642.986718.4611130.58297.99
5819B018131.896726.388031.52610.24
5819C017933.196527.317631.93187.56
5820B0114037.045715.0815340.48287.41
5821B019131.273110.6514449.48258.59
5821C018626.065416.3615948.18319.39
5821C028225.714213.1716852.66278.46
5821C039027.953410.5617353.73257.76
5821ES12519.842015.877156.35107.94
51076B0122067.077924.09206.192.74
51077B0113748.0712443.51196.6751.75
51078B014651.693235.961011.2411.12
51079B017941.88544.972412.710.53
51080B014343.435151.5255.0500
51081B017053.853627.692015.3843.08
51082B013830.450403628.810.8
51083B012037.743362.260000
51084B012128.384256.761114.8600
51085B014230.887756.621611.7610.74
51086B0112549.219838.58259.8462.36
51086C0111349.569139.91177.4673.07
51087B013223.194028.996547.110.72
51088B0113436.919425.913436.9110.28
51089B0156285326.58743.542
51090B017330.2910945.235422.4152.07
51091B0154.854341.755452.4310.97
51092B014115.7114154.027829.8910.38
51093B017724.4411937.7811837.4610.32
51094B016104473.33711.6735
51095B015789.0634.6934.6911.56
51096B0116564.27328.4176.6120.78
51097B0112157.085626.423014.1552.36
51098B014086.96510.870012.17
51099B0130501016.67183023.33
51100B015932.243820.777842.6284.37
51100C015530.225027.477239.5652.75
51101B0142.072412.4415278.76136.74
51101C012612.152210.2816275.741.87
51102B013330.561614.815853.710.93
51103B011810137.221448052.78
51103C014124.12105.8811366.4763.53
51104B014422.453015.3111960.7131.53
51104C012813.45526.3212459.3320.96
51105B011911.522213.3311871.5263.64
51105C012314.56127.5911572.7885.06
51106B0119058.825216.16319.5185.57
51106C0115050.685016.896822.97289.46
51106C0218253.695716.816920.35319.14
51106C0318653.144713.438223.433510
6838B016425197.4215962.11145.47
6838C014519.482410.3915767.9752.16
6839B018823.22348.9722960.42287.39
6839C019927.65339.2219955.59277.54
6840B015319.9293.3818971.05155.64
6840C015820.28248.3919267.13124.2
6841B013317.84189.7311964.32158.11
6841C014724.872312.1710354.5168.47
6849B016024.392811.3813956.5197.72
6849C015021.83229.6114362.45146.11
6850B013316.13316.113565.8541.95
6850C014021.053216.8411761.5810.53
6851B019425.95515.1518350.41318.54
6851C019024.795414.8819052.34297.99
6852B014017.73716.3713358.85167.08
6852C014420.66188.4514166.2104.69
6853B013217.981810.1111162.36179.55
6854B015225.492311.2711857.84115.39
6854C014321.833115.749950.252412.18
6855B016123.742610.1215961.87114.28
6856B013617.223014.3513162.68125.74
6856C013716.373314.614865.4983.54
6863B017224421416856186
6863C017023.813612.2416556.12237.82
6863C028025.563310.5417555.91257.99
6864B014326.222615.858350.61127.32
6873B012420.871916.526354.7897.83
6874B016324.423613.9513953.88207.75
6875B016117.09308.424568.63215.88
6876B013720.221910.3810758.472010.93
6876C014320.192712.6812860.09157.04
6877B018722.724812.5322157.7277.05
6877C0110625.485513.2222654.33296.97
6878B015024.882813.9312361.1900
6878C017433.333515.7710647.7573.15
6879B014318.452812.0214963.95135.58
6879C016627.62208.3712953.972410.04
6880B015828.433115.29647.06199.31
6894B012633.771215.583038.96911.69
6895B015428.882312.39952.94115.88
6896B015322.463615.2513255.93156.36
6896C015121.434016.8113155.04166.72
6897B015326.63199.5511557.79126.03
6897C014321.182914.2911556.65167.88
6898B018235.653314.3510244.35135.65
6898C015924.483012.4513556.02177.05
6899B015219.85166.1116362.213111.83
6900B015221.42811.5214559.67187.41
6901B016428.192410.5712253.74177.49
6901C014623.232412.1211156.06178.59
6902B0111235.334413.8811536.284614.51
6919B019633.85017.619934.863913.73
6920B017334.11219.8110247.66188.41
6920C015728.362713.4310552.24125.97
6921B0110530.354813.8716046.24339.54
6921C0113534.356015.2716441.73348.65
6922B0184304415.7112645269.29
6922C019844.753817.355826.482511.42
6922C029132.853412.2712545.13279.75
6924B0111237.844816.2211338.18237.77
6924C018530.363713.2113447.86248.57
6924ES117201112.945058.8278.24
6924ES21424.1446.93255.17813.79
6925B019927.655114.2517448.6349.5
6926B015826.982511.6311151.63219.77
6926C014922.584420.2810648.85188.29
6927B015124.643014.4910651.21209.66
6927C015027.472714.848345.62212.09
6931B0110830.517220.3412334.755114.41
6931C0110029.415716.7613840.594513.24
6932B0116942.366416.0412731.83399.77
6932C0113136.85214.6112936.244412.36
6936B0115338.446115.3313934.924511.31
6936C0114235.065112.5917643.46368.89
6936C0213038.354613.5713038.35339.73
6936C0315437.25613.5315437.25012.08
6936C0414236.885113.2515640.52369.35
6951B018538.643013.648639.09198.64
6951C017537.51898844199.5
6990B0110430.955616.6713740.773911.61
6991B019238.332610.838937.083313.75
6992B017528.634818.3211644.27238.78
6993B016725.093613.4814253.18228.24
6994B016829.692510.9212152.84156.55
6994C015722.8239.214658.4249.6
6995B0110934.173711.614545.45288.78
61008B018326.276721.213943.99278.54
61009B0112338.323912.1510532.715416.82
61010B0121201110.485956.191413.33
61011B017625.174013.2516955.96175.63
61012B014721.172913.0613761.7194.05
61012C015725.79198.612154.752410.86
61013B015026.63518.628846.81157.98
61013C016130.353215.928743.282110.45
61014B015526.19125.7111655.242712.86
61014C014622.22199.1813866.6741.93
61015B015223.42219.4613862.16114.95
61015C014621.92813.3312559.52115.24
61016B014029.632216.35742.221611.85
61017B018337.393716.677232.433013.51
61017C017739.092713.717236.552110.66
61018B0181274916.3312742.334314.33
61018C019529.65416.8211836.765416.82
61026B016620.953410.7919762.54185.71
61026C016420.385818.4716953.82237.32
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